Check your experts


An NFL team’s success can be linked to one position on the field.

Thirty-two multi-billion-dollar companies depend on one position more than any other to boost their worth: the quarterback.

But most NFL teams aren’t always good at picking the right quarterback, even though all the great ones have similar strengths and skills. The number of busts outnumber the number of great ones by a factor of 100.

Most NFL experts — usually media paid to watch games who never played the game or former players who didn’t play quarterback — don’t have a good history at picking who will succeed either. This year, a new type of expert is starting to emerge: former NFL quarterbacks.

There is one quarterback prospect in this year’s draft who some teams have as the best. There is a former NFL quarterback who thinks he’s the fifth best, if even that. He says the red flags are obvious — it’s right there in the film of his college games. He says if you don’t see them you don’t know the position and you don’t know today’s NFL.

After hearing the arguments on both sides for this prospect, the former NFL QB’s case is the strongest. He knows who doesn’t make it in the league because he’s sat next to those characters in quarterback meetings and practiced with them for more than a decade. I wonder if the NFL general managers will take note. I know that if I had to make a decision on a quarterback, it would’t take me long before I consulted with someone who played at the position and knows the game. Everyone has a bias, but I think the former QB who’s fresh from the fight would be able to measure best what truly matters. If you haven’t lately, check your experts and make sure you make time for those who ignore what doesn’t matter.

Read & React: When you look at the list of the first-round busts when it comes to NFL quarterbacks, you see a theme.